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Prognosis and Estimation of Russian Strategic Risks: Theory and Practice
V.A.Akimov, Head of the Strategy Research Center of Emergency Ministry of Russia, Doctor of technical sciences, professor
Last decades of the previous century in Russia were the time of formation and realization of a number of strategic dangers and threats of strategic, so-called strategic risks (SR): defeat in cold war, disintegration of world super-state and subsequent social, economic and political transformations. Arising and realization of SR occurred without deep preliminary and subsequent scientific analysis that has substantially determined extremely negative display of dangers, challenges and threats for the country in whole and for the majority of its citizens. Modern social, economic and political condition of Russia, plurality of various threats and complexity of solving the problems of their counteraction caused necessity to use new approaches in government management on the basis of SR parameters.
More than 10-years experience of successful functioning of the uniform state system of prevention and liquidation of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character with the coordinating role of the Russian Emergencies Ministry at control of the risks of failures, accidents and acts of nature allowed to apply "risk" methodology for estimation and forecasting the dangers and threats for various spheres of the state life.
Modern position of the country is still characterized by deep and all-round crisis connected with transformation of one type of society to another, accelerated revival from totalitarian political system and command forms of managing. Nevertheless, in the country still there are reserves for development and preservation of the status of "great country" capable in long-term perspective to effectively enough protect its national interests in external world.
Such resources include:
- status of nuclear power;
- availability of natural resources;
- several powerful resource-extracting and industrial-financial groups, capable to become the generators of growth;
- high level of education and cultural development;
- beginnings in scientific-technological sphere and even leading positions in a number of branches (atomic engineering and power installations, materiology, a number of kinds of arms, prevention and liquidation of extreme situations);
- historical inheritance, partially remaining political potential of authority in the world;
- large territory.
Analysis of the data shown in the Concept of demographic development of the Russian Federation (fig. 1), has shown, that the general risk of death from any reasons in Russia is 15.35õ10-3 deaths per year, i.e. more than 15 deaths per 1000 people, and the risk of untimely death makes 13.05õ10-3 deaths per year or 85 % of all fatal outcomes (in advanced countries - not more than 50 %).
- social and economic causes (6.60 õ10-3)
- ecological causes (2.70õ10-3)
- death of old age (2.30õ10-3)
- natural-technogenic causes (0.77 õ10-3)
- suicides (0.30 õ10-3)
- crimes (0.20 õ10-3)
Fig. 1. Social risks (risks of death) in Russia. In brackets - number of deaths per year.
Till the 60th of the last century it was considered that in nature and society there are only two classes of processes. The first are described by dynamic systems where the future is unequivocally determined by the past - processes of this class are determined, convertible and fully predictable. The horizon of forecast of such systems conditions is practically unlimited. Examples of such systems - from so-called "ideal" pendula in classical physics up to real space objects in astronomy. The second - casual processes, where the future does not depend on the past in any way. The horizon of forecast of such systems is fully absent.
However, already in the beginning of 70th the scientists have found out that there is the third class of processes which are formally described by dynamic systems, but their behavior can be predicted only for small time intervals. This class of processes were named of "dynamic chaos" (tab. 1). This class of systems and processes includes practically all crisis phenomena and accidents of the present time, beginning from catastrophic flooding in the south of Russia and up to systematical and economic crises.
Table 1. Formalization of accidents and crises. (Click on link to see the table)
Risks researches in our country for a long time practically did not develop, that was the consequence of realization of the concept of "absolute safety" (it was considered that it is possible to create absolutely safe system of any complexity). After Chernobyl accident there was reassessment of the safety system. It became obvious that not cosmetic measures but construction of modern safety science is required. Quantitative information about the levels of dangers and threats and their dependence on various factors is necessary for making effective administrative decisions. Receiving such information needs special instruments: methods, models, techniques, algorithms. Presently such methodical device based on the theory of risks analysis and management, worked out and drawn to the systems of support of decision-making in the field of prevention and liquidation of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character.
As at analysis of crisis phenomena in modern Russia first of all it is necessary to identify, estimate and predict the dangers and threats essentially affecting national safety and ability to live of the state, such risks are named strategic (SR). From the point of view of formalization and use of mathematical methods of estimation and forecasting of SR, they are understood as such combinations of probabilities of occurrence of adverse events (crisis phenomena and catastrophic situations) and damages caused by them which essentially reduce the level of security of vital interests of person, society and state from internal and external threats.
In the beginning of the 19th century Charles Gauss established that probability of distribution of random variables is frequently described by the only mathematical expression, which later was named after him.
As classification attribute of SR are chosen the basic spheres of ability to live of the state (tab. 2): political, economic, social, natural-technogenic, scientific and technical. Nowadays national scientists have carried out preliminary researches for allocation and estimation of importance of SR for maintenance of national safety of Russia in each of the spheres of the state ability to live.
In the 20th century in Russia political risks have got strategic character in the periods of cardinal changes of a political system, forms of ownership and character of economy.
The scientists of the Russian Academy of Science have allocated the SR in political sphere which are ranked by degree of importance for maintenance of national safety and steady development of Russia for long-term prospect.
Principal of them are the following (in brackets - risk importance):
- strengthening of positions of the USA in the modern world and their aspiration to dictatorship (1.00);
- increase of power of China (0.61);
- decrease of defensibility of the country and fighting capacity of the Armed forces (0.59);
- possibility of internal interethnic and inter-confessional conflicts (0.55);
- increase of military threat from part of USA and NATO (0.44);
- possibility of occurrence of regional and local military conflicts (0.40);
- formation of new center of militant fundamentalism to the South from borders of Russia (0.34);
- increase of international terrorism (0.27);
- possibility of aggravation of interparty struggle - political extremism (0.13).
Table 2. Spheres of vital activity and risk parameters. (Click on link to see the table)
SR in economic sphere with various degree of depth and detalization were and are being analyzed already for many decades in our country and in the world. During this analysis and in the forecasts of economic development the basic attention, as a rule, was given to trend regularities and the main average parameters of economical conditions: profit, gross national product, profits and supplies of the budget, rate of inflation, tariffs of natural monopolies, exchange rate of national currency. The Government of the Russian Federation also tries to operate these economic parameters.
National scientists and experts allocate the following basic risks for Russia in the economic sphere (in brackets - risk importance):
- irrational choice of priorities and proportions of development of economy, strengthening of structural deformation of national economy (1.00);
- criminalization of economy and capital flowing off from the country (0.56);
- decrease of industrial potential and low investment activity (0.42);
- possibility of energy crisis (0.32);
- excess of the limits of openness of national economy in conditions of international globalization (0.29);
- adverse economic conjuncture, reduction in the world prices for energy carriers (0.17);
- external debt, creating danger of aggravation of financial crisis (0.15);
- low production competitiveness (0.12);
- decrease of volumes of agricultural production, loss of food independence (0.11).
Main purpose of SR management in the social sphere is reaching the trajectory of evolutionary and forecasted development with preservation of priority of national safety. At this stage of stabilization development SR structure will change, probabilities of development of adverse social crises will reduce, the horizon of forecasting will increase and damages reduced.
Principal risks for modern Russia in the social sphere are (in brackets - risk importance):
- corruption, criminalization and incompetence of power structures, decrease of trust to authorities (1.00);
- decrease of living standard and antagonism of social structure (0.76);
- spiritual crisis in the society (0.29);
- irregularity of social and economic development of the regions of the country (0.27);
- growth of criminality (0.23);
- growth of alcoholism and drugs addiction (0.19);
- aggravation of demographic situation in the country (0.18);
- possibility of biologo-social extreme situations (0.08).
Further development of all spheres of vital activity of Russia should base on direct analysis of SR in scientific and technical sphere since it determines economic and export potential of the country, creates scientific basis for production of goods and real sector of economy.
Principal risks in scientific and technical sphere are (in brackets - risk importance):
- irrational choice of priorities of scientific and technical policy (1.00);
- decrease of scientific, technical and innovational potentials: brain drain, ageing of staff, crisis of education system (0.70);
- growth of information vulnerability of all spheres of vital activity of the society (0.33);
- increase of threat of non-authorized use of modern technologies (0.17);
- uncertainty of risks of future technologies (communication, information, gene, space, etc.) (0.10).
These risks nowadays become of strategic character in connection with global changes of inhabitancy, development of technosphere and increasing scales of acts of nature. Principal risks for Russia in these spheres are:
- risks of development of dangerous natural phenomena (earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes, landslips, floodings, karst, forest fires, etc.) (risk importance 1.00);
- risks of failures and accidents at potentially dangerous objects (0.94);
- environmental contamination (0.43);
- risks connected with global change of climate, degradation of environment, planetary risks (0.24);
- exhaustion of natural and biological resources (0.15).
Preliminary forecast of SR factors for prospect from 5 to 20 years gives the information for generalized quality estimation of potential possibility of occurrence of SR and allows to make preliminary conclusions of mechanisms of their management (fig. 2-6). First of all we should note that according to the experts the value of economic sphere of SR remains most essential to all horizons of forecasting. In the essence, this factor forms and affects the principle spheres of the state's ability to live. The consequence of it is the conclusion about necessity of deep analysis of existing and perspective priorities, including all-round estimation of the consequences of realization of various scenario of economic development for different horizon of forecasting. Further it is necessary to note that qualitative ranging of relative importance of considered spheres of SR remains identical to various time prospects, i.e. locates in the following sequence: economic, political, social, scientific and technical and technogenic spheres. Certain dynamics of relative importance arises basically inside each of the listed groups.
Considering the forecast of immediate prospects (up to 5 years) we may speak about possible appearance of SR for several reasons: excess practically all critical values of national safety indicators; wide list of SR factors of a high realization degree; strong mutual influence of the factors and potential opportunity of their synergetic strengthening.
In the economic sphere appearance of SR is connected with the irrational choice of priorities, strengthening of criminalization and outflow of capital abroad, decrease of industrial potential and possibility of energetic crisis. The two latter components correspond with scientific and technical SR factors - decrease of innovational and scientific potential. In political sphere the factor of external threats is unequivocally connected with the strengthening of power and dictatorship of the USA, that in particular can increase interethnic and regional conflicts. The special attention should be paid to the problem of terrorism having both internal and external sources.
The joint influence of economic and political threats can increase the frequency and scales of the of social risks demonstration in immediate prospects. The high level of criminalization of the economy and incompleteness of legislative bases of the transitional period will promote a high level of corruption. Mistakes in the choice of priorities in development of the economy, difference in the development of regions, insufficient attention to spiritual development of the society during the previous years will strengthen the spiritual crisis (especially among youth), and aggravate the problem of alcohol and drugs consumption with a high possibility.
Fig. 2. Forecast of SR importance in economic sphere.
Fig. 3. Forecast of SR importance in political sphere.
Fig. 4. Forecast of SR importance in social sphere.
Notwithstanding of the fact that man-caused risks stand in the end of the list of relative importance, their constant presence at forecasting allows to speak about the system, and base character of the given factors. Unfortunately, the natural extreme phenomena are poorly controlled not only in our country, but also abroad.
Fig. 5. Forecast of SR importance in scientific and technical sphere.
Fig. 6. Forecast of SR importance in technogenic sphere.
This concerns to complexities of reliable forecasting, first of all geological, meteorological and some complex natural risks. In this connection a special attention should be paid to revision of construction standards, and especially to the rules of allocation of buildings and engineering constructions in the areas subject to these risks. Man-caused risks are more controlled, however, taking into consideration ageing of capital equipment and decrease of professional level of personnel, the increase of frequency and scale of damages and accidents consequences at potentially dangerous objects may be expected within the next few years. One of the ways of risk management in the technogenic sphere can become the procedure of safety certification (complex risk) in the territory of regional and municipal formations.
The main purpose of such certification, except for gathering of the objective information, should consist of strengthening of interest of regional bodies in carrying out of preventive actions and strengthening of their responsibility for non-acceptance of corresponding measures.
Considering the features of the given SR factors, a special attention should be paid to development of concept of risks economic management, especially regarding the creation of national system of compensation of damages from extreme situations in the technogenic sphere. The recently accepted Concept of development of insurance in the Russian Federation in which the special attention is paid to development of obligatory kinds of the natural risks insurance in conjunction with creation of the centralized guarantee funds, in particular, can be considered as a first step.
To the above listed factors of economic risks the threats caused by excessive openness of the economy of Russia and growth of sensitivity of various branches of the national economy to fluctuations of the world conjuncture will be added for the 10 year prospect. The appropriate measures (legislative, organizational, market) should be developed for increase of stability. Against the background of adaptation to global economic processes the balanced system of protection of domestic manufacturers should operate permanently.
Otherwise, the listed threats may have not only economic consequences, but also promote strengthening of social tension. Possibility and potential scales of fuel and energy crisis (regional, interregional and national) may strengthen in the economic sphere. Notwithstanding the significant stock of power resources, the gap in the rate of reforming of the key economic branches of power engineering, the low level of innovational processes and the number of other factors may create a threat of power safety at the national level.
Appearance of political extremism as a significant factor is typical for the medium-term forecast, however it can achieve the essential influence only in conjunction with the increase of social and economic threats.
The analysis of forecasts by separate SR components allows make the conclusion, that under the examined prospect occurrence of strategic risks in the Asian part of Russia is rather probable. Presently is forecasted development of some large-scale projects in Siberia and in the Far East (especially in the field of power), realization of which can essentially affect not only internal social and economic atmosphere, but also cause changing of the conjuncture in Asian-Pacific Region. Predicted strengthening of the USA and China influence within the nearest 20 years can cause political and economic counteraction to realization of the projects. Formation of local centers of interethnic conflicts is possible, but special concern causes the problem of terrorism as new industrial targets can become sources of heightened interest on the part of corresponding groups, especially if Russia indirectly supports the international acts of terrorism.
Social aspect of SR is potentially connected with further increase of antagonism between low and high-paid parts of the population, inequality of social development of regions and an aggravation of demographic situation, increase in crime, appearance of tension between representatives of different branches of economy. If presently the most obvious inequality of economic development of regions is reflected at comparison of European and Asian parts of Russia, the inequality may increase in the Asian regions of the country within ten years. Realization of scale projects, probably, initiates migratory processes, which can also become source of additional social conflicts.
For the remote prospect (up to 20 years) the SR forecast, naturally, bears the most sketchy character. The same list of possible probable threats is typical for the given horizon of forecasting, however, the strength of their potential display may be rather decreased. Depending on successfulness and efficiency of antiterrorist actions, both danger of large-scale acts of terrorism, and the opportunity of a strong center of fundamentalism in Asia may be weakened or strengthened.
Even for the remote prospect in forecasts of social SR component there is a problem of growth of criminality, alcoholism and drug addiction. This means that the mechanisms of management of the given risks available now or predicted considering the existing knowledge are obviously insufficient and they are ineffective.
On one hand, application of methodology of estimation and forecast of the crisis phenomena and accidents in modern Russia will allow to develop base principles, methods and systems of determination, normalization and management of SR at federal and regional levels. Further, on the basis of regular estimation and forecast of SR the transition to regulation of national safety of Russia under uniform SR system will be possible. The limits in which rather safe realization of the performed social and economic and political transformations in the Russian Federation is possible will be revealed.
On the other hand, risk indices can be incorporated in programs of social and economic development of the country and its regions. Thus, on the assumption of estimation of real risks and their forecasting, the state can form complex system of measures on maintenance of the risk level for a person guaranteed in the given territory during the concrete period of time. In the future such an approach will seriously influence on the socio-economic planning practice, and in view of existing world tendencies of growth of number of accidents and the crisis phenomena, can become dominating.
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